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Mr Anon 4:24 Mon Sep 23
Bookie odds
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Do they take into consideration team "prestige " when calculating odds? Was thinking on Sunday that it was a surprise they were firm favourites to win the game. How good does our form, and how bad does theirs have to be, before we nose In front in the eyes of the bookies? Have we ever been favourites to beat them in anyone's lifetime??
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Replies - Newest Posts First ( Show In Chronological Order)
4ever-blowin-bubbles
10:53 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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bookies are not that stupid they always win more than they lose
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bill green
6:04 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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not quite... the bookies employ odd setters who specialise in their particular niche and set the odds, which are overround, meaning that if you bet on all outcomes it will cost you more than you win.
eg made up example
WHU EVS
Man U EVS
Draw 4/1
To get back £100 no matter what cost you £50 on WHU and Man Utd and £20 for the draw total of £120 to guarantee £100 return.
so this simplified example the book is 20% overround
the skill from the oddsetter is to put the prices that tempt bets on all outcomes, if they get a lot of money going on one outcome they'll shorten that and lengthen the others whilst still keeping their margin
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lewisnadasurf1
5:23 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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No. Bookies work off the exchange first off then put their own mark up of it (to get their book% of winning).
So for example if WHU were 2.00 / Man Utd 2.50 etc
A bookies would do 5/2 and 4/1 etc
Thats the original odds.
The odds then change based on the 'risk' - so if everyone backed WHU to win at 5/2 - and the bookies would be liable to lose £200,000 - they'd bring the odds back in to 2/1 for example.
Then - and here is the killer - bookies lay off with other bookies - so if they're gonna lose £200k - they'll put £100k at 2/1 with another bookies (for example)
Hope that helps.
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El Scorchio
5:23 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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Yes, the odds aren't always representative of the matchup, but somewhat dictated by where the money is going. The bookies would be mental to put long(er) odds on Man U if the vast majority of people are backing them out of deluded fandom/habit/ignorance/blind faith/whatever.
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WHUDeano
4:36 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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Couldn't believe the odds on us and Liverpool yesterday, the bookies still seem unsure of how to deal with how poor Man Utd & Chelsea are now. Liverpool were 11/10 yesterday!
I got 5/1 on a West Ham & Liverpool double, and 19/1 on ha handicap bet of West Ham - 1 & Liverpool -1, this one particularly capped a fantastic day for me - I cashed out with 20mins to go as the wife and kids had got home & I was pissed and happy enough to turn off the football for the day and take 90% of the possible pay out. Imagine my delight when I popped online to check the score 5 minutes later...was a small win but probably the most pleasurable win I've had, the first bet I've ever lost but still won!
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Grumpster
4:28 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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PS also covering their arses as they know a hell of a lot more people (their fans basically) are going to back them out of blind faith and if they had fluked a win, it saves them on the pay out.
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Grumpster
4:27 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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Some early odds probably also done by so called strength of the strongest team they could have put out, as they seem to have a West Ham like injury room going on at the moment.
But agreed, as I saw their starting 11 and instantly thought to myself that I would be a bit pissed off if we didn't beat them comfortably.
Should have at least been similar odds to them.
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Mr Anon
4:24 Mon Sep 23
Re: Bookie odds
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They= Man United obv
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